Mungiki thugs started a bloody turf war on Wednesday morning this week in Nairobi's crowded slum Dandora. In broad daylight at 10.00 in the morning, a group of about 50 youths armed with primitive weapons such as bows, arrows and pangas set upon a bus full of people, firstly robbing them, then hacking at people at random. A policeman on duty tried to prevent the attack, but he was overpowered and was doused with petrol. He was burnt beyond recognition and the bus was completely gutted by fire. Five innocent people are fighting for their lives in hospital after the fracas.

Police believe now that the raid came as a result of an increased police presence recently in Dandora which made the Mungiki leadership suspect that police were taking the side of a rival gang that was believed to be muscling in on Mungiki's matatu and bus fee collecting scam.

The police went into action immediately on Wednesday in a huge operation to counter the Mungiki threat and stop their collecting fees from matatus and buses in Dandora. The result was the arrest of over 100 Mungiki suspects on Thursday., and the discovery of another hideously mutilated police fatality. Three bullet riddled bodies of Mungiki thugs illustrate clearly the understandable anger of the police, and they will no doubt avenge their fallen comrades on the Mungiki in detention.

Since Wednesday police in Dandora have been patrolling in heavily armed groups of 10, and have strict orders to shoot to kill at the first sign of trouble. They excluded Mungiki from the Dandora bus terminal, but according to police sources Mungiki immediately devised a new method of extorting money from bus and matatu operators circumventing the police. At places along the established routes, Mungiki hide in discreetly placed matatus, sending out small children to demand money from the matatu drivers when they stop.Those who fail to cough up have their vehicles and drivers smashed up when they return to Dandora in the evening. 

Police are totally puzzled as to who is receiving all the money from the bus and matatu fee collecting scam, and are naturally anxious to know who the godfather is. They believe that the violence is devised as a way to discredit the NARC government which they want to portray as out of control.

The real fear is that Mungiki will start similar violence in rural areas of the country which could cause a stampeed away from farms and result in disruption of food production. It is obvious how dangerous the situation will become if large-scale hunger looms in the country. 

The horrifying effect of politically instigated violence in Mombasa and upcountry areas such as Molo in the runup to the elections of 1992 and 1997 is still very fresh in peoples' minds. Former President Moi appointed a Commission of Enquiry to investigate these tribal clashes, but he refused for years to release its report to the public until last December when a High Court judge ruled that it must be released. The report pointed a finger directly at some of Moi's cronies, especially his righthand man Nicholas Biwott, as being behind the clashes, and it was shown how the administration was used by them to further their political aims. It is scarey that these same people who are so well practiced in perpetrating ethnic clashes are now in opposition and are quite capable of manipulating Mungiki to their advantage.

Rumours abound in Nairobi about the actual state of President Kibaki's health, and also about the health of his Vice President. That makes our worries about Mungiki even more pertinent.